Make smarter decisions in uncertain situations now!
Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
Decision Making/Psychology
TL;DR
Stop being a 'resulter' – judging your decisions only by the outcome is like blaming the chef because you choked on the food. Learn to think in probabilities, not certainties; life's a poker game, not chess. Use decision trees to map out potential futures, like planning your escape route from a bad date. Backcast from potential disasters to see where you went wrong before they happen. Build mental models to understand how the world actually works, not how you wish it did. Seek out people who disagree with you – they're not haters, they're your cheap therapy session for better thinking. It's all about making smarter bets with the limited info you have, because nobody's got a crystal ball, especially not you.
Action Items
Think about that time you slid into someone's DMs. Did it work out? Doesn't matter. Was the decision to shoot your shot a good one, given what you knew then? Reflect on that, not just the 'seen' receipt.
Before you swipe right on that profile, instead of 'they'll definitely match' or 'they won't,' give it a percentage. '70% chance they're a bot, 20% chance they're hot, 10% chance they're my future ex.' Just practice the numbers game.
Thinking about ordering that questionable late-night pizza? Map it out: 'Good pizza (70% chance, happy belly)', 'Bad pizza (20% chance, regret)', 'No pizza (10% chance, still hungry)'. See which path gives you the best 'expected value' for your stomach.
Got a big presentation tomorrow? Imagine you totally bomb it. Why? Did you forget your pants? Did the projector explode? Pick one reason and figure out how to prevent that specific disaster. Then do the same for crushing it.
Next time you're arguing with your friend about whether pineapple belongs on pizza, don't just preach to the choir. Find someone who hates it and genuinely ask them why. Try to understand their logic, even if it's wrong (it is, pineapple belongs).
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Key Chapter
Chapter - The Quality of a Decision Is Not Determined by the Quality of Its Outcome
Listen up, you 'resulters'! If you're judging your past choices only by how they turned out, you're basically shooting yourself in the foot when it comes to getting smarter. Resulting is the dumbass habit of thinking a decision was brilliant just because you got lucky, or terrible just because things went south. It totally screws up your ability to learn from your screw-ups. You'll miss the times you were a total idiot but got bailed out, and you won't see the times you made a solid play but got shafted by bad luck. Stop being a slave to outcomes and start focusing on making the best damn decision you can with the crappy hand you're dealt. That's how you actually get better, not by just celebrating when you accidentally trip into success.
Key Methods and Approaches
Stop Being a 'Resulter'
(AKA: Separating Decision Quality from Outcome Quality)
Description:
Don't judge how good your decision was based only on whether it worked out or not. The outcome is often tainted by luck.
Explanation:
It's like saying your decision to eat that sketchy street taco was brilliant because you didn't get food poisoning. Or saying your decision to invest in that solid company was stupid because the market crashed the next day. The decision itself was good or bad before you knew the outcome. Stop being a Monday morning quarterback for your own life.
Examples:
You decided to drive home drunk because you felt fine. You got home safe. Resulting says "Good decision!" The book says "You're an idiot who got lucky."
You studied your ass off for an exam, knew the material cold, but got a weird question you couldn't answer and failed. Resulting says "Bad decision to study that way!" The book says "Solid decision, bad luck on one question."
You asked out someone you really liked after building up courage. They said no. Resulting says "Bad decision to ask!" The book says "Good decision to try, outcome sucked."
Today's Action:
Think about that time you slid into someone's DMs. Did it work out? Doesn't matter. Was the decision to shoot your shot a good one, given what you knew then? Reflect on that, not just the 'seen' receipt.
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