Predict The Future, Seriously
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Psychology
TL;DR
Forget crystal balls, this book spills the tea on how to actually predict stuff better than your average rando. It's all about breaking down problems into tiny bits, updating your beliefs like you update your phone, and not being a stubborn idiot when new info drops. Basically, it's a masterclass in not being wrong all the time, especially when it matters, by using probabilistic thinking and constantly refining your guesses.
Action Items
Next time you're about to make a small decision, like 'Should I order takeout?' or 'Will my friend be on time?', slap a percentage on how likely each outcome is. No 'maybe,' just a number.
Got a massive, overwhelming task looming (like 'clean my entire room' or 'figure out my life')? Pick just one small, dumb part of it and break it into 2-3 even tinier steps. Do the first step today.
Recall a strong opinion you have about something trivial (e.g., 'This new show sucks' or 'That restaurant is overrated'). Find one piece of info or a friend's perspective that challenges it. Just listen/read, don't defend your original stance.
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Key Chapter
Chapter - The Brain's Software Update (aka Updating Your Beliefs)
Imagine your brain is a dusty old hard drive full of outdated files. This chapter is all about hitting that refresh button on your opinions. It's not about being wishy-washy; it's about being smart enough to admit you might be wrong and then tweaking your predictions based on new info. Think of it like constantly adjusting your aim in a video game as the target moves. You don't just stick to your first guess; you iteratively refine it. This means you're always learning, always getting closer to the truth, and less likely to look like a clown when reality hits. It's about being flexible, not fragile, with your thoughts.
Key Methods and Approaches
Your Brain's Probability Meter
(AKA: Probabilistic Thinking)
Description:
Stop saying 'probably' and start saying '70% chance.' Get specific with your guesses, even if it feels weird.
Explanation:
Your brain usually thinks in 'yes/no' or 'maybe.' But the real world is shades of gray, like trying to guess if your crush will text back. This method is about slapping a percentage on your predictions. It forces you to actually think about the odds, not just vibe it out. It's like turning your gut feeling into a slightly more scientific guess, so you can track how often you're right.
Examples:
What's the chance I'll actually finish this assignment tonight? 30%.
How likely is it that my friend will bail on plans again? 85%.
What's the probability I'll regret this late-night snack? 99%.
Today's Action:
Next time you're about to make a small decision, like 'Should I order takeout?' or 'Will my friend be on time?', slap a percentage on how likely each outcome is. No 'maybe,' just a number.
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